2 min · Psychology
The wheel has no memory
Why a run of reds does not make black due.
Patterns are easy to see
Our brains are good at spotting patterns, including in random results. Believing that a losing streak must be followed by a win is called the gambler’s fallacy.
Check the mechanism
A fair European roulette spin always has 18 red, 18 black and one zero available. Black remains 18 out of 37 after any streak. Real card decks are different: removing cards changes what remains. Do not apply the memoryless rule to every game.
Separate a story from a prediction
A history strip describes previous results. On an independent wheel it does not predict the next result. Before calling something a pattern, ask what would physically change its probability.
Take this with you
On independent draws, a streak does not make a result due.